Sanremo 2026: winner predictions, here are the bookmakers' favourites. For best lyrics, Ermal Meta leads the pack

The countdown to the 2026 Sanremo Festival, kicking off Tuesday, February 24, comes with the first bookmakers' odds. The figures published by Eurobet.live paint a fairly clear picture of favorites, possible surprises and outsiders.

Brancale leads the pack

At the top of the odds is Serena Brancale, given 28.57% odds of winning: a figure that puts her ahead of the field and fuels talk of a possible breakout win. Right behind her comes the duo of Fedez and Marco Masini, rated at 16.67%, a pairing that brings together two very different audiences and could have a wide-reaching impact at the Ariston. Tied for third place are Tommaso Paradiso and Sayf, both at 13.33%: the former backed by a well-established body of work, the latter one of the most closely watched emerging names of this edition.

In the next bracket down come Ermal Meta (7.69%) and Arisa (6.25%), joined by Ditonellapiaga with the same percentage. Further back, Fulminacci (5.56%) and Eddie Brock (4.76%) remain in the mid-to-upper range.

A tightly packed group sits at 3.03%, including Malika Ayane, Maria Antonietta, Colombre, Nayt and Tredici Pietro.

Lower down the rankings are Levante (1.64%) and Sal Da Vinci (1.52%), followed by Chiello, Luche and Michele Bravi (1.41%). Further down still, Dargen D'Amico and Enrico Nigiotti (1.23%).

Closing out the list of veterans are Patty Pravo, Francesco Renga, J-Ax, Leo Gassmann, Mara Sattei and Bambole di Pezza (0.66%), with Raf at 0.50%.

Among the outsiders furthest from the top are Elettra Lamborghini, LDA, Aka 7even and Samurai Jay, all given odds of 0.40%. On paper at least, these minimal percentages put them far from contention for the title, pending the verdict of the stage and the public vote.

Best Lyrics, Ermal Meta in pole position

After the lyrics of the competing songs at the 2026 Sanremo Festival were published, bookmakers also opened odds for the "Sergio Bardotti" Award for Best Lyrics. According to Sisal's assessment, the name in pole position is Ermal Meta, offered at 2.75.

"Stella stellina", co-written with Dardust and Gianni Pollex, is dedicated to a little girl from Gaza: a song that weaves together pain and hope, evoking resistance and a longing for rebirth. Meta, after all, arrives at the Ariston with a solid track record: victory at the Sanremo Festival in 2018 alongside Fabrizio Moro, the Mia Martini Award in 2017 and the Bigazzi Award in 2021 for best musical composition. The Bardotti award would be a further confirmation of his standing as a songwriter.

Behind him, tied at 5.00, are Serena Brancale and Sayf. The former focuses on an introspective lyric dedicated to her late mother; the latter offers a critical take on the present, amid social tensions and everyday contradictions.

Rounding out the picture is Levante, the only artist in the competition to have written and composed her entry entirely on her own. This bolsters her credentials as a songwriter, but according to the bookmakers it doesn't translate into competitiveness: her odds of winning the award are set at 50 to 1.

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