Sanremo 2026: who will win? The favourites in the bookmakers' latest odds ahead of the final

At the Teatro Ariston, preparations are in full swing for the final night of the 2026 Sanremo Festival, and anticipation is building for the final verdict, to be announced tonight. Meanwhile, bookmakers are sketching out a clear picture of the likely final rankings and the event's side awards.

The bookmakers' odds

According to Sisal.it odds, Ermal Meta looks like the top candidate for a double win: he's clearly out in front for the “Sergio Bardotti” Award at 1.50, with no rivals given any real chance, while for the “Mia Martini” Award he leads at 2.00. In this second category, the only real challenger is Nayt, priced at 5.00.

The race for the “Lucio Dalla” Award looks more uncertain, with Ditonellapiaga and Serena Brancale level at 3.00. Behind them comes Sal Da Vinci, priced at 5.00: the Neapolitan singer is also seeing his odds shorten for the overall win.

Sal Da Vinci himself, with the track "Per sempre sì", is priced at 3.00 on the eve of the final, in line with the Fedez-Masini duo. Serena Brancale follows at 4.50, while Arisa remains in contention at 9.00.

Among the outsiders is Sayf: a win is offered at 12.00, but a place in the Top 5 is considered plausible, with that scenario set at 3.00.

Finally, there's the unknown of last place, which at the Festival can carry a symbolic weight. At the moment, the leading candidate to close out the ranking is Elettra Lamborghini, priced at 2.25.

Betting on Polymarket

Meanwhile, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, bets on the winner of the Sanremo 2026 Festival are already open. Here, unlike traditional bookmakers, the odds aren't set by a central operator but emerge directly from users' wagers: the price attached to each artist reflects the implied probability the market assigns to their victory. The system — as reported by Fanpage — runs on blockchain and uses a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Those who guess correctly earn a return proportional to the risk taken, while those who guess wrong lose their stake. The odds therefore shift in real time based on rumours, performances and public perception, offering a dynamic snapshot of collective expectations. There remains, however, the risk of manipulation: large bets placed by a small number of players could temporarily skew the percentages.

At the moment, the duo made up of Fedez and Marco Masini leads with a 36% implied probability. They're followed by Serena Brancale (32%) and Arisa (21%). Further behind are Tommaso Paradiso and Chiello (8%), Malika Ayane and Sayf (7%), Ermal Meta (5%), while Nayt and Michele Bravi sit at just 1%.

Trading volume has already topped $72,000, signaling an active market and significant interest surrounding the Festival.

Ride the wave of great music

Add OndaRock to your favorite sources on Google Discover. Don't miss our reviews, milestones and latest news straight in your feed.

Follow on Google