Sanremo 2026: who will win? Sisal odds point to a head-to-head

After listening to the competing songs and settling the top 5 of the opening night, the 76th edition of the Sanremo Festival is also heating up on the odds front. According to analysts at Sisal.it, the race for overall victory is mainly focused on the Fedez-Masini duet and on Serena Brancale.

Fedez and Masini are now in the lead at 2.75, ahead of the Puglian artist, who has climbed to 3.25. Behind them, Arisa is trying to fight back, quoted at 6.00 with "Magica favola", recovering ground in the bookmakers' odds.

Among the possible outsiders are Sal Da Vinci, Ditonellapiaga and Fulminacci. After the success of "Rossetto e caffè", Sal Da Vinci is aiming to repeat the feat with "Per sempre sì": his odds of winning are set at 9.00. Ditonellapiaga, offered at 12.00, could consolidate the position gained by breaking into the first-night top 5. Further back is Tommaso Paradiso, whose odds of winning now stand at 16.00.

Fulminacci remains the alternative bet: the Roman singer-songwriter is priced at 20.00, odds that place him among the possible surprises of this edition.

The first ranking

"Magica Favola" by Arisa, "Stupida Sfortuna" by Fulminacci, "Qui con me" by Serena Brancale, "Che Fastidio!" by Ditonellapiaga and "Male Necessario" by Fedez and Masini lead the provisional ranking at the end of the first night.

The ranking was determined solely by the vote of the Press, TV and Web Room. At the close of the show, Carlo Conti announced the top five songs, listing them in random order and without specifying their actual placement.

The trending chart

Already the bookmakers' favorite on the eve of the festival, Serena Brancale is also leading the trends.

The Sanremo Festival, in fact, is also a social media phenomenon. On YouTube Music, a playlist featuring the official tracks of the competing artists has recently been made available (and is being continuously updated). Among the most-watched live performance videos on Rai's YouTube channel are Arisa with "Magica favola", Fedez & Marco Masini with "Male necessario", Ditonellapiaga with "Che fastidio!", Sal Da Vinci with "Per sempre sì" and Serena Brancale with "Qui con me". YouTube's Trending Music Videos chart (Top 20) already shows 6 Sanremo videos among the trends: #1 Serena Brancale with "Qui con me"; #4 Ditonellapiaga with "Che fastidio!"; #6 Tommaso Paradiso with "I romantici"; #10 Samurai Jay with "Ossessione"; #12 Enrico Nigiotti with "Ogni volta che non so volare"; #14 Ermal Meta with "Stella stellina"; #15 nayt with "Prima che"; #16 J-Ax with "Italy Starter Pack".

The bookmakers' odds

After the listening sessions for the competing songs and the announcement of the first Top 5, the 76th edition of the Sanremo Festival has also moved into high gear on the prediction front. According to analysts at Sisal, the race for the final win is currently shaping up as a two-horse affair: the duo of Fedez and Marco Masini, priced at 2.75, have overtaken Serena Brancale, now at 3.25.

Close behind is Arisa, who has climbed back up the odds boards to 6.00 on the strength of “Magica favola”. Further down the field, but with room to grow, are a few names seen as potential surprises, following in the footsteps of what happened last year with Lucio Corsi.

Among them is Sal Da Vinci, who, after the success of “Rossetto e caffè”, is aiming to turn “Per sempre sì” into a new mainstream-pop standard: his odds of winning are set at 9.00. Ditonellapiaga is priced higher, at 12.00, though making the first Top 5 could strengthen her candidacy. Meanwhile Tommaso Paradiso has slipped, now at 16.00.

On the underdog front: Fulminacci is being floated as a credible dark horse. A win for him would pay out at 20 to 1, a sign of cautious but not negligible confidence.

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